Saturday, August 12, 2006

Israel's unfinished ''business'' in Lebanon

What's happening today in the south of Lebanon is too much like what happened in 1973 war. After 16 days of conflict, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution with the number of 338, which calls for a cease-fire. (Contrary to the 1701 resolution, it defined a starting date, on the 22nd of October). Both conflicting countries accepted the resolution, still the fighting continued.

By the time the 1701 resolution is waiting for the acceptance of the two governments of Lebanon and Israel to take effect. (And it looks like they both are going to approve it). Israel has an "unfinished job" in the south of Lebanon. Hezbollah, for the past thirty-two days maintained a routine in shelling the same amount of rockets on north of Israel, and on a daily basis.

Many experts and strategy analysts reported lately in the medias that Hezbollah had not been defeated yet. In a recent report by Stratfor team cited that: "
Hezbollah has certainly achieved an extraordinary degree of success. It has fought IDF to a draw". Adding also that: "Hezbollah's strategy has worked thus far, establishing it as the most effective force ever to confront the Israelis."

It is notable to say unlike all other wars Israel has fought against Arabs, this was the longest, and probably the first to be won by diplomatic and political efforts; IDF could not profit from a strategic military surprise to have a decisive influence on the subsequent course of the war. In the 1956 war it surprised the Egyptian army by choosing the Zero hour. Again in the 1967 war in an extraordinary and well coordinated surprise smashed the Egyptian air force and returned to refuel, leaving behind more than 17 completely destroyed airfields, and around 300 aircrafts. Just a day before President Abed-el-Nasser was receiving envoys from the United States convincing him that there will be no war if he does not make the first move. In 1973 war, the Egyptian turned the table, even through President Al-Sadat has been repeating that the status Quo and the situation of "No War, No Peace" is not acceptable and must be changed by force. The Israeli military intelligence knew about doubtful movements on the Egyptian side and did not take them seriously. This time Surprise was fighting with the Egyptians against the Israelis. After one week of intense fighting, Israel had to call for help from its patron the United States. The supplies and aids did not take much time; the aerial bridge soon was replacing all the damaged military equipments. Israel shifted to plan B, it had to gain a striking military advantage to give it a comfortable place on the negotiating table. The Plan B, lead by Ariel Sharon, secured a twenty kilometer wide corridor to the canal with the purpose to surround the Egyptian third army and cut off its supplies. When Al-Sadat figured it out, it was too late, and this operation achieved after the UNSCR 338 has been adopted, affected directly the rest of the war, and thus the winning side.

"The “
cease-fire in-place” portion of UNSCR 338 was criticized by Israeli officials who complained it would not allow them to “finish the job” in the Sinai. Kissinger responded by asking how long it would take to complete encirclement of the Egyptian army. Upon hearing “two or three days,” Kissinger is reported to have responded: “Well, in Vietnam the cease-fire didn’t go into effect at the exact time that was agreed on."

Similar to what happened in the 1973 war, Israel needs more time, probably few more days, till 14th of August. It is trying to deploy a noteworthy number of troopers (30,000 leaked to the newspapers) in the south of Lebanon, trying to invade as much as it can, and bear for few days the resistance of Hezbollah. Monday will come; Israel had fulfilled its public opinion and showed the world and the Arabs its invincibility and that Hezbollah could not prevent the IDF from occupying Lebanon's Land.

Pascal Assaf
August, 12th 2006

8 comments:

  1. Yeah i guess you got a point, they also showed that Hezbollah although small, was as powerful which is weird.

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  2. nicely put .....

    hoping the peace will last




    Psycho

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  3. Very informative and comparative article. I guess Hezbollah has really resisted, the longest any militants have resisted Israel in history. Israel is surely to put up a horror movie the next 36 hours, till Monday morning.

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  4. no doubt the israelis r squeezing out the last hours of the conflict trying to score a "win", but from my point of view this will be an operation to reduce their losses more than a win or victory. since they didn't push as they first wanted, the psychological effects of this battle are going to compound over time and lead to some downgrading in the IDF quality/credibility. I wish this thing will reinforce the resistance inside of israel. As for israeli manoeuveres, it is important for the leb politicians to close out any loopholes in the resolution 1701 with the help of the UN delegates to prevent any possible hitbacks so the "israeli business" in lebanon will be finished at last.one last comment: after the war of july with lebanon, israel gega military elite and leaders are back to earth, after decades of decisive victories over the Arab rogue states.

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  5. I think that the war with Israel is going to continue because this war is the only thing preventing a new Lebanese civil war, and a war with Israel is preferable to a civil war.

    In an interview with Al Jazeera at the beginning of the war he said: ‘‘If we succeed in achieving the victory . . . we will never forget all those who supported us at this stage. . . . As for those who sinned against us . . . those who made mistakes, those who let us down and those who conspired against us . . . this will be left for a day to settle accounts. We might be tolerant with them, and we might not.’’

    Today, Hezbollah’s fight is/will not be limited to Israel. In a recent interview in the Guardian, Sayed Ali, a Hezbollah local leader/cleric in Tyre said it all; one of his best and most revealing give aways was the following:

    And even when the battle with the Israelis is over, he adds menacingly, Hizbullah will have other battles to fight. “The real battle is after the end of this war. We will have to settle score with the Lebanese politicians. We also have the best security and intelligence apparatus in this country, and we can reach any of those people who are speaking against us now. Let’s finish with the Israelis and then we will settle scores later.”

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  6. Hezbollah has lost nearly half of its fulltime fighters. A modern army that loses even 1% of its personnel is doomed. Hezbollah is doomed. It has had all of its buildings and civil and social infrastructure and a large amount of its arsenal destroyed. Plus all its supply lines from Syria cut. Bye bye Hezbollah occupied Lebanon. Nasrallah only agreed to the ceasefire because Hezbollah is beat up and beat up bad. If the Lebanese people finish the job and get rid of the Hezbollah influence and the government takes charge of the whole country, it will be a win for Lebanon, a win for Israel and a win for the rest of the free world. Stand up for Lebanon and get rid of Hezbollah.

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  7. To Mikealpha,
    let me say that i re-read the interview with Sayed Nasrallah on al Jazeera, the transalation is not accurate compared to the arabic original interview. in english it looks like Nasrallah is threatening, as in arabic it looks like he might forgive and he might night. but he is not stating any threat against "those who...".

    As you know we consider ourselves in a democratic coutry, and as long as Hezbollah will settle his accounts with the others under the law and in a democratic way, It is acceptable.

    As for Sayed Ali quotes, i totally disagree what he said.

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  8. To Anonymous,
    this is your opinion, which i respect, but there are other opinions contrary to what u said. in a recent article by By Uri Avnery (an Irgun veteran turned Israeli peace activist.), titled "SO WHAT has happened to the Israeli army?", he wrote:

    "if a light-weight boxer is fighting a heavy-weight champion and is still standing in the 12th round, the victory is his - whatever the count of points says."


    As for "Hezbollah influence and the government takes charge of the whole country" or the disarming of Hezbollah, We in Lebanon, agreed that this is an internal issue, and it will be solved internally without the help of the Israelis.

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