What's happening today in the south of Lebanon is too much like what happened in 1973 war. After 16 days of conflict, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution with the number of 338, which calls for a cease-fire. (Contrary to the 1701 resolution, it defined a starting date, on the 22nd of October). Both conflicting countries accepted the resolution, still the fighting continued.
By the time the 1701 resolution is waiting for the acceptance of the two governments of Lebanon and Israel to take effect. (And it looks like they both are going to approve it). Israel has an "unfinished job" in the south of Lebanon. Hezbollah, for the past thirty-two days maintained a routine in shelling the same amount of rockets on north of Israel, and on a daily basis.
Many experts and strategy analysts reported lately in the medias that Hezbollah had not been defeated yet. In a recent report by Stratfor team cited that: "Hezbollah has certainly achieved an extraordinary degree of success. It has fought IDF to a draw". Adding also that: "Hezbollah's strategy has worked thus far, establishing it as the most effective force ever to confront the Israelis."
It is notable to say unlike all other wars Israel has fought against Arabs, this was the longest, and probably the first to be won by diplomatic and political efforts; IDF could not profit from a strategic military surprise to have a decisive influence on the subsequent course of the war. In the 1956 war it surprised the Egyptian army by choosing the Zero hour. Again in the 1967 war in an extraordinary and well coordinated surprise smashed the Egyptian air force and returned to refuel, leaving behind more than 17 completely destroyed airfields, and around 300 aircrafts. Just a day before President Abed-el-Nasser was receiving envoys from the United States convincing him that there will be no war if he does not make the first move. In 1973 war, the Egyptian turned the table, even through President Al-Sadat has been repeating that the status Quo and the situation of "No War, No Peace" is not acceptable and must be changed by force. The Israeli military intelligence knew about doubtful movements on the Egyptian side and did not take them seriously. This time Surprise was fighting with the Egyptians against the Israelis. After one week of intense fighting, Israel had to call for help from its patron the United States. The supplies and aids did not take much time; the aerial bridge soon was replacing all the damaged military equipments. Israel shifted to plan B, it had to gain a striking military advantage to give it a comfortable place on the negotiating table. The Plan B, lead by Ariel Sharon, secured a twenty kilometer wide corridor to the canal with the purpose to surround the Egyptian third army and cut off its supplies. When Al-Sadat figured it out, it was too late, and this operation achieved after the UNSCR 338 has been adopted, affected directly the rest of the war, and thus the winning side.
"The “cease-fire in-place” portion of UNSCR 338 was criticized by Israeli officials who complained it would not allow them to “finish the job” in the Sinai. Kissinger responded by asking how long it would take to complete encirclement of the Egyptian army. Upon hearing “two or three days,” Kissinger is reported to have responded: “Well, in Vietnam the cease-fire didn’t go into effect at the exact time that was agreed on."
Similar to what happened in the 1973 war, Israel needs more time, probably few more days, till 14th of August. It is trying to deploy a noteworthy number of troopers (30,000 leaked to the newspapers) in the south of Lebanon, trying to invade as much as it can, and bear for few days the resistance of Hezbollah. Monday will come; Israel had fulfilled its public opinion and showed the world and the Arabs its invincibility and that Hezbollah could not prevent the IDF from occupying Lebanon's Land.
August, 12th 2006