Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Rising probability for a ceasefire

Many incidents and statements of main actors in the Middle East new crisis appeared lately in the Medias, all pointing that the two parties involved in the war are now reading the same script and ready to take this play to a newer chapter. Alongside, with an international effort for a ceasefire led by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and top European diplomats, mostly everything is pointing to an upcoming ceasefire.

July 20th, Defense Minister and Deputy Premier Elias al-Murr, issued a statement to Al-Jazeera television that the Lebanese army, which has been aside in Israel's war on Hezbollah,
will fight against any land invasion:

“The Lebanese army – and I stress – the Lebanese army will resist and defend the country if necessary”, he added, specifying “we will battle he Israelis alone and will not accept to fight alongside the resistance”.

July 22nd, Lebanese president Emile Lahoud in an interview with the CNN called for a ceasefire and said the Lebanese army is prepared and will fight the invaders.

"Of course, the army is going to defend its land, and inside Lebanon
they can do a lot. They cannot be strong enough to be against Israel on the frontier, because they have much stronger materiel and weaponry. Inside [Lebanon] they know the land and, of course, they will fight the invading folks of Israel if it tries to come inside."

July 23, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton said on "Late Edition" and "Fox News Sunday" that the Bush administration would seriously consider an Israeli suggestion for an international peacekeeping force -- preferably led by NATO -- along Lebanon's border

"We have been looking carefully at the possibility of a multinational force, perhaps authorized by the Security Council, but not a U.N.-helmeted force,"

July 23rd, Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz told the Cabinet that the army's current offensive is not an invasion of Lebanon, but rather a series of limited raids into the area.
July 23rd, Another
statement by the Israeli Defense Minister Peretz the same day only one hour before his first, suggesting a deployment of a multi-national force in Lebanon, lead by NATO troops to lead such a force. And that the key to solve this on growing crisis is to find a solution for the two abducted soldiers on July 12th.

"Because of the weakness of the Lebanese army, we will support a wide national force … which would deploy in the south,"

July 23rd, Lebanese Foreign Minister, Fawzi Salloukh, who is close to Hezbollah, told the reporters earlier today:

“The Israeli soldiers are in good health and in a safe place”

July 23rd, Lebanon's parliament speaker Nabih Berri told CNN in a televised interview:

"The government of Lebanon, by way of a third party, will handle the negotiations, [and] not any other political party or group, … This is accepted by our brothers in Hezbollah and by us."

A major shift in Hezbollah attitude, as many analysts commented, Hezbollah for the first time is granting the Lebanese government authority to negotiate a prisoner swap.

July 23rd, Syria,
warned that if Israel invaded Lebanon it would have no choice but to respond, Information Minister Moshen Bilal told the Spanish newspaper ABC.:

"If Israel makes a land entry into Lebanon, they can get to within
20 kilometers of Damascus," … "What will we do? Stand by with our arms folded? Absolutely not. Without any doubt Syria will intervene in the conflict."

It is clear that all parties have stated their positions and demands, with only one thing in consideration their people judgment.
Israel has prepared their public opinion either by the two different polls done lately which showed
81% Of Israelis back Military effort to crush Hezbollah, either by the cinematic preparations of the troops on the borders with Lebanon.
Lebanon's courageous statements about deploying Lebanese army into an unfair and uneven fight against one of the most well equipped armies in the world. Lebanese PM statement that Lebanon will not attend the international conference in Italy in case Israel will participate.
Syria's warning after ten days to interfere on the Behalf of Lebanon! A total clone of the threat issued by Iranian Republic to Israel if it moves the war onto Syrian territories.

But the question remains, for how long this chance is going to last?

Pascal Assaf,
July 23rd, 2006

1 comment:

  1. Well I guess now that everything goes on record, Syria can always say they had stood by Lebanon.