Friday, July 21, 2006

No Ground Invasion!!!

Even through many indications point to a nearly ground invasion into Lebanon in the upcoming hours or days, many other signs indicate a totally contradictory scenario.
The propaganda used in the evacuation of Westerners from Lebanon with several
countries (United States, Italy, France, the Netherlands, Australia, Bulgaria, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates any many others) announcing plans to evacuate their citizens overland via Syria or by ferryboat to Cyprus. Russia has already evacuated 1,407 of its nationals and citizens of former Soviet republics. Canada has chartered six ships to help trapped Canadians escape Lebanon. Britain is sending two royal warships in preparation for a mass evacuation. U.S. Marines picked up hundreds of U.S citizens in an amphibious landing craft that arrived to a beach north of Beirut. The image aired on local Medias of U.S Marines back in the Lebanese capital after 23 years. This cinematic turmoil accompanied by several ground attacks and the attempts to infiltrate deeper in the southern Lebanon, the call for troops in reserve, the mobilized more forces on the boundaries, all these acts are loud indications that Israel is likely to send its forces across the border for a major offensive against Hezbollah bases in the near future.
A quick glimpse at the situation after nine days of a ferocious war, The Israeli air campaign continues. The Hezbollah rocket campaign also continues. Israel says it has destroyed
40 to 50 percent of Hezbollah's military capability, while a Hezbollah spokesman said earlier today that Hezbollah has enough rockets to carry out strikes against Israel "for months" and Israeli warplanes have not cut the organization's supply lines. Military speaking it seems both sides has been testing their opponent's force. They both know now their adversary's capabilities. A knock out is far to be achieved in the upcoming days, while the let go period given by the Bush administration to the Israeli government is approaching to its end. Soon the international pressure will mount and the diplomatic efforts will be matured enough to force a cease-fire on both fighting parties. A military conclusive is far from reach in the near future as long as the two enemies are sharing the same chess game techniques. Many factors encourage me to think the next play is a shift into political/diplomatic move.
Israel has achieved till now many major goals; the first is making Lebanon pay an expensive bill for the abducting of the two Israeli soldiers by destroying its infrastructure. Many
Arab leaders especially Saudi Arabia, supported by Jordan, Egypt, several Gulf States and the Palestinian Authority, criticized Hezbollah and held the organization accountable for "its irresponsible action". The Lebanon government vowed from the first day it didn't know about the operation nor it is responsible. Many ministers including PM Seniora have been publicly talking about deploying country's army in the south, statements that couldn't be uttered ten days ago. Many have been talking about accountability after this crisis finishes, and who holds the decision of war. People in the south of Lebanon have been punished (in the Israel view) for electing Hezbollah members.
Plus Israel has destroyed all the bridges and main roads that tie all the cities of the south, which pops up a question if Hezbollah can't use those bombed bridges to facilitate its transportation, how could Israel.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has
postponed again her peace mission visit to the Middle East for sometime next week. So Israel will continue in a way air bombing the so called Hezbollah bunkers, and hits every few and then some civilian targets either by mistake or by increasing the bill Lebanon has to pay for the 12th of July incident. And in another way wait for the Lebanese government to take over and tries to implicate the UN's 1559 resolution along with the Lebanon's part of the G8 summit Middle East declaration (Also to note that the pope Benedict XVI has fully supported it) by the aid of the European Union, the United States, the Russian federation and the United Nations.

Analysis provided and written by Pascal Assaf


  1. Hezbollah leader, Sheik Nasralla has said that it is not possible for him to tell the government just beforehand that he is going to abduct two soldiers as this will jeapordize his plans and risk the success of the mission.
    But however he mentioned that on the "Hiwar" table he has informed the other members of this table that this step was bound to happen one day.
    I believe due to the failure of the Israeli Attacks on ground, and the not so accomplished from air strikes except destruction of Lebanese infrastructure and death of civilians, the only future step as mentioned in the article, is negotiations, although Israel keeps repeating that it does not negotiate with "terrorists".

  2. well i hope they don't invade, but i'm sure they won't. They've made it clear that they have no problem with the lebanese government and thus with the lebanese people, only with the HA guys.
    well i dunno, let's hope this is over soon.

  3. very accurate reading of the situation, precise keypoints and very good conclusion. I agree with you, even though I think the IDF won't accept to stop the operations on this level, they have their image scratched, so they need to have at least one good vicctory before they announce they're ready to negociate. will Hezbollah give them this wish?